A Novel Regularized Weighted Estimation Method for Information Diffusion Prediction in Social Networks

Abstract

In recent years, social networks have become popular among Internet users, and various studies have been performed on the analysis of users’ behavior in social networks. Information diffusion analysis is one of the leading fields in social network analysis. In this context, users are influenced by other users in the social network, such as their friends. User behavior is analyzed using several models designed for information diffusion modeling and prediction. In this paper, first, the problem of estimating the diffusion probabilities for the independent cascade model is studied. We propose a method for estimating diffusion probabilities. This method assigns a weight to each individual diffusion sample within a network. To account for the different effects of diffusion samples, several weighting schemes are proposed. Afterward, the proposed method is applied to real cascade datasets such as Twitter and Digg. We try to estimate diffusion probabilities for the independent cascade model considering the continuous time of nodes’ infections. The results of our evaluation of our methods are presented based on several datasets. The results show the high performance of our methods in terms of training time as well as other metrics such as mean absolute error and F-measure.