| Authors | H. Ghorbani-Vali, A.-Zarepour, H. |
|---|---|
| Journal | Journal of Water and Soil Science |
| Paper Type | Full Paper |
| Published At | 2019 |
| Journal Grade | Scientific - research |
| Journal Type | Typographic |
| Journal Country | Iran, Islamic Republic Of |
Abstract
Drought as a natural hazards is a gradual phenomenon, slowly affecting an area, may last for many years, and can have devastating effects on natural environment and in human lives. Although, drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resource systems but random nature of contributing factors in occurring and severity of droughts, makes us difficulties to determine when a drought begins or ends.
The present research was planned to evaluate the skill of linear stochastic models known as multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model in the quantitative forecasting of drought in Isfahan province based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To this end, the best SARIMA models was chosen for modelling monthly rainfall data from 1990 to 2017 for every 10 synoptic stations in Isfahan province to forecast their monthly rainfall up to five years. The monthly time scale SPI values based on these predications were used for assessing drought severity of different stations for 2018-2022 time period. The station results indicate weak drought at 2019-2022 period for Isfahan, Kashan, Naeen and severe drought at 2019 for Ardestan and Golpaygan as well as weak drought at 2019 for East of Isfahan, Shahreza and KabootarAbad stations. All other stations, except Isfahan, Kashan, Golpayegan and Naeen faced severe drought in 2018.
Key words: Drought, Isfahan Province, SARIMA Model, SPI Index, Time Series.