Lag Time Forecasting in a River Basin

Abstract

Lag time is a parameter that appears often in theoretical and conceptual models associated with river basin. The river basin lag time is an important factor in linear modeling of river basin response. Generally, all hydrologic analyses require at least one of the time parameters of river basin and, in the majority of cases, time of concentration or lag time are used. In this research, storm data from 6 stations in the North Karoon river basin (in Iran) were analyzed. From this analysis, 23 events were selected. Then, in one experimental sub-basin located in this river basin, the lag time was calculated using field method. In this method, performed in the Darehbeed - Samsami study area, lag time was computed from a hydrograph generated by discharge measurement of a triangular scaled spillway. After that, 23 events were divided into two groups, including, one for a newly developed empirical model (70 percent) and another for validation of this model (30 percent). The results obtained from this research based on coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and relative error (%RE) statistical measures showed that the agreement between the computed (from new empirical model) and measured data is good.