Reliability Analysis of Cyber–Physical Energy Hubs: A Monte Carlo Approach

Abstract

In this paper, the reliability of cyber-physical energy hubs (CPEHs) is evaluated based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Previous works in the related literature are generally focused on the physical layer of energy hubs (EHs). However, the security of EHs heavily relies on the reliable and safe performance of the cyber system. Therefore, this study considers the failure of cyber-physical components, data packet errors, and information transmission delay to improve the reliability assessment accuracy. The physical layer of the proposed CPEH is divided into two sections, namely heat and power sections, and reliability indices are calculated for both sections. Various scenarios are suggested to precisely analyze the effects of the cyber layer consideration on the CPEH reliability results. Sensitivity analysis on the failure rate of the components is also conducted to understand better the performance of the CPEH in situations with a higher risk of heat components’ failure. The notable impacts of the cyber layer disturbances on the CPEH reliability evaluation are demonstrated through the simulation results.